Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution

The delineation of closely related species remains a persistent challenge in Zoantharia, where morphological plasticity and limited genetic differentiation complicate taxonomy. In this study, we investigated the phylogenetic relationship between the widely distributed sibling taxa Palythoa tuberculosa (Indo-Pacific) and Palythoa caribaeorum (Atlantic) using ultraconserved elements (UCEs) recovered from genome skimming. A dataset comprising 116 loci (35,699 bp) across 37 specimens from Brazil, the Red Sea, Okinawa, and New Caledonia was analysed using both concatenated maximum-likelihood and coalescent-based approaches. Phylogenetic reconstructions did not recover monophyletic relationships corresponding to either species or geographic origin, instead revealing intermixed lineages across the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic regions. Concordance factor analyses indicated low gene concordance and moderate site concordance, suggesting pervasive gene tree discordance rather than a lack of phylogenetic signal. These patterns are consistent with previous studies based on mitochondrial, nuclear, and reduced-representation datasets, indicating that increased marker resolution does not resolve species boundaries within this complex. The observed lack of differentiation may reflect ongoing or recent connectivity among populations, potentially facilitated by long-distance dispersal promoted by anthropogenic rafting or historical range expansion, biological invasion, or biological processes such as incomplete lineage sorting. The results support the hypothesis that P. tuberculosa and P. caribaeorum represent a species complex or a case of incipient speciation rather than fully distinct evolutionary lineages. These findings indicate that genome-scale data alone may be insufficient to resolve very recent divergences, supporting the need for integrative approaches to resolve complicated species boundaries in zoantharians.

The temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest of North America harbor many endemic taxa whose evolutionary histories have been shaped by major climatic and geologic events. The enigmatic taildropper slugs (genus Prophysaon) are one example, notable for their ability to autonomize their tails to escape predators. Despite extensive work uncovering the evolutionary history of individual lineages, relationships among the nine recognized species of Prophysaon remain poorly understood due to insufficient molecular data. To address this, we collected transcriptomes for six of the nine currently accepted species of Prophysaon. Using these data, we were able to resolve species relationships, calling into question the existing subgeneric classification based on morphology. We also detected undescribed phenotypic diversity within the P. andersonii--P. foliolatum species complex, with molecular data supporting the distinctness of two phenotypically distinct populations from Washington. Finally, our transcriptomic data suggest a moderate role of introgression in shaping the evolutionary history of Prophysaon. Here, we synonymize the subgenus Mimetarion with nominotypical Prophysaon. Future work should further investigate whether the undescribed diversity detected here represents species level differentiation.

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWSpecies represent a fundamental unit of biodiversity in evolutionary biology, but the nature of the speciation continuum and inadequate sampling of organisms with broad distributions provide substantial challenges to species delimitation. The Pacific Treefrog complex (Pseudacris regilla sensu lato) is an iconic but systematically poorly understood group of chorus frogs inhabiting a vast portion of western North America. Current studies tentatively recognize three species in this complex (P. hypochondriaca, P. regilla, P. sierra), but disagreement remains among morphological, mitochondrial, and nuclear genetic data. In this study, we used thorough geographic sampling and thousands of nuclear loci to clarify the phylogenetic relationships and divergence history of P. regilla s.l. lineages and recommend a new taxonomic arrangement. We inferred recent divergence with gene flow between P. regilla and P. sierra, topological inconsistencies, and genealogical divergence indices that place P. regilla and P. sierra firmly in the "gray zone" of speciation. Pseudacris hypochondriaca diverged over 0.5 Ma without gene flow until recent secondary contact with the "north" (P. regilla + P. sierra) lineage. Based on inferences from our genomic data and recently published acoustic signal differentiation, we propose a two species taxonomy for this complex, recognizing the "north" lineage as P. regilla. Our study shows how extensive geographic sampling, high-throughput sequencing, and multiple analytical approaches can resolve systematic uncertainties in challenging species complexes.

This investigation aimed at compiling all phylogenetic lineages within and around genus Cyanoboletus. The evolutionary inference obtained from the nuclear ribosomal genes internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) suggests that part of the species currently classified in Cyanoboletus belong in lineages separate from the genus, thus suggesting a narrower boundary that includes only the species that develop a strong staining reaction to touch and to air exposure of the context. The separate lineages are the monotypic Cupreoboletus genus and a few species that do not develop such reaction, which are part of a clade together with genera Cacaoporus and Acyanoboletus, thus broadening the concept of Cacaoporus to encompass all of them. The emerging 3C perspective of Cupreoboletus, Cacaoporus and Cyanoboletus offers a remarkably consistent morphological diagnosis, overcoming the problems of a too broad concept for Cyanoboletus. This work reveals that Boletus neotropicus, B. novae-zelandiae and B. sensibilis belong respectively in Cyanoboletus, Cacaoporus and Lanmaoa, and by studying multigene alignment concatenates it identifies lineages that probably represent undescribed species: at least four in Cacaoporus and at least five in Cyanoboletus. Diagnostic tables and dichotomic keys are presented by geographic region. The present work also includes a study of the phylogenetic position of Neoboletus flavosanguineus, a species once classified in Cyanoboletus. The complexity of assigning species epithets in some lineages is addressed, namely for the boundaries between Cacaoporus instabilis and Ca. fagaceophilus as well as the diversity under the names Cyanoboletus sinopulverulentus and Cy. pulverulentus. The overall picture of evolutionary lineages sets a framework for the choice of reference data that can provide, in future phylogenetic studies that involve the 3C, a balanced and efficient coverage. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=197 SRC="FIGDIR/small/724631v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (23K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7f618corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@dd6a14org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@5f7399org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@9e7443_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

Incilius marmoreus inhabits an extensive range along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and a smaller allopatric region in the State of Veracruz, exhibiting an unusual distribution among herpetofauna. Gunther (1901) classified the Pacific coastal toads Bufo argillaceus and B. lateralis as conspecific with Incilius [Bufo] marmoreus, which has its type locality in Veracruz. Here, we adopt a multidisciplinary approach to reevaluate the phylogeography and taxonomy of I. marmoreus by gathering and analyzing morphological data and conducting phylogenetic and population genetic analyses from genome-wide SNP data. Our results uphold the current taxonomy by concurring with Gunther (1901). Our phylogenetic and population genetic analyses suggest that I. marmoreus from Veracruz are closely related to those from Oaxaca whilst coalescent analyses recovered a north-south split along the Pacific Coast estimated to have occurred [~]0.86 Mya followed by a shallow east-west split in the southern lineage that separates the Pacific coastal populations and the allopatric population in Veracruz [~]0.33 Mya. This species displays marked morphological and genetic diversity throughout its range, but this variation appears to be consistent with gene flow across contiguous populations rather than the existence of independent evolutionary lineages. The processes leading to the geographic isolation of the population on the coast of Veracruz remain uncertain, but we hypothesize that climatic and vegetation changes in the Late Pleistocene may have played a role.

Haemosporida is a diverse order of vector-borne apicomplexan parasites infecting terrestrial vertebrates worldwide, including humans, but the evolutionary relationships among its genera remain unresolved. The phylogenetic placement of two bat-restricted genera, Nycteria and Polychromophilus, both of which lack erythrocytic schizogony, has varied across studies depending on taxon sampling and marker choice. To address this problem, an expanded dataset of near-complete mitochondrial (mtDNA) genomes together with nine nuclear loci were analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses of mtDNA recovered Nycteria and Polychromophilus as a strongly supported monophyletic clade. In contrast, analyses based only on the three mitochondrial coding genes (CDS) or a reduced nuclear dataset failed to recover their monophyly and showed low support and extensive topological conflict at deeper nodes. These results indicate that near-complete mitochondrial genomes recover phylogenetic signal that is not captured by reduced mitochondrial coding sequences or partial nuclear datasets. Molecular dating analyses further showed that divergence estimates for a putative Nycteria-Polychromophilus clade are compatible with the proposed times for bats diversification, and consistent with the broader haemosporidian timescale. When the Nycteria-Polychromophilus clade was incorporated as a calibration prior, divergence-time estimates became more precise without altering the overall evolutionary timeframe. Substantial mitochondrial gene-order rearrangements in a distinct Nycteria lineage were confirmed, highlighting structural divergence within this bat-associated group. In addition, heterogeneity in rates across mtDNA haemosporidian lineages was observed. Together, these findings support the existence of a distinct bat-associated clade whose deeper placement and evolutionary significance should be tested with broader phylogenomic sampling. Author SummaryMalaria parasites belong to a diverse group of organisms that infect many kinds of vertebrates, including birds, reptiles, and mammals (such as humans). Understanding how these parasites are related to each other is important for explaining how key biological traits have evolved. However, the relationships among major groups of haemosporidian parasites, including malaria parasites, remain unclear, particularly for those infecting bats. In this study, we focused on two groups of bat parasites, Nycteria and Polychromophilus, which share unusual biological features. The inferred evolutionary relationships of these two genera to other haemosporidians have been inconsistent across previous studies. By analyzing near-complete mitochondrial genomes, we found strong evidence that these two groups descended from a common evolutionary ancestor. In contrast, smaller datasets including nuclear genes failed to recover this relationship and produced conflicting results, suggesting that they lack sufficient information to resolve deep evolutionary relationships. We also found that this bat-associated lineage likely originated around the same time as early bats. In addition, we identified structural changes in the mitochondrial genome of one lineage, highlighting its evolutionary distinctiveness. Together, our results suggest that bats host a unique group of malaria parasites and demonstrate that more complete genetic data are essential for resolving their evolutionary history.

Diatoms exhibit remarkable diversity in valve morphology, with the raphe system being a fundamental feature in classification of raphid pennate diatoms. The repeated loss of one of the two raphes during evolution has led to multiple independent origins of monoraphid diatoms. The phylogenetic affinities of the monoraphid genus Crenotia A. Z. Wojtal, erected from Achnanthidium thermale Rabenhorst, have not yet been clarified with molecular data. In this study, natural populations of Crenotia and monoclonal strains derived from them were examined using morphological observations and multilocus phylogenetic analyses based on nuclear and plastidial molecular markers. Three species of the genus Crenotia form a well-supported clade placed within a subgroup of monoraphid genera, which are closely related to Cymbellales D.G. Mann and other biraphid diatoms. This study establishes the first molecular framework for representatives of the genus Crenotia, demonstrating their monophyly and congruent interspecific relationships recovered with multiple molecular markers. The low intraspecific sequence variability and substantial interspecific divergence, together with clear morphological and ecological differentiation, support the recognition of the three investigated species.

Obtaining large and well-resolved phylogenetic trees for neotropical clades is challenging, as many species inhabit remote regions, and sampling often relies on herbarium specimens with highly degraded DNA. Target capture provides an effective solution for retrieving molecular data from fragmentary material. However, data processing using tools generally designed for diploid organisms and single-copy loci is also challenging, particularly when events such as genome duplication and hybridisation have shaped the lineage evolution. We used dual-hybridisation to integrate Ochnaceae-specific and universal probes to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationships of Sauvagesieae, a pantropical clade with ca. 90 species mainly distributed in the northern Andes, the Brazilian Espinhaco Range, and the Amazon-Guyana region. We tested different filtering strategies involving missing data and paralogs to assess probable sources of tree discordance and topological uncertainty. We found no significant benefit in reducing tree discordance after removing entire genes due to the presence of paralogs or a high amount of missing data. Removing fragmentary sequences instead improved alignments and increased branch support of gene trees. By quantifying the proportion of SNPs, analysing the distribution of the allele frequencies, and gene-tree quartet frequencies, we found evidence of polyploidisation and hybridisation, which could reduce resolution at internal nodes, particularly in mountain clades. Our results underscore the importance of exploring the complexities of target-capture data, not only to improve phylogenetic resolution but also to understand the sources of phylogenetic conflict and the underlying molecular evolutionary processes.

Cryptic species diversity, overlooked due to extreme morphological similarity, is a common phenomenon among ants. The "honeypot ant" genus Myrmecocystus (Wesmael, 1838; Formicinae: Lasiini) likely features multiple cryptic species, as previously suggested by phylogenetic studies based on ultraconserved elements (UCEs). Here, this work is expanded upon by examining 140 specimens and 2,508 UCE loci, with a particular focus on the M. mendax species complex from the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Phylogenomic and population genomic analyses revealed five distinct M. mendax-like lineages and identified two potential cases of cryptic species diversity, one within samples matching the morphology of M. mendax and another within samples conforming to M. placodops. Most specimens morphologically identified as M. mendax formed a well-supported monophyletic group sister to M. melliger assigned individuals, with evidence for ongoing hybridization between both species in the Madrean Sky Islands along the USA-Mexico border. Patterns in the main M. mendax clade also suggest adaptive divergence across ecological gradients, warranting further investigation. Overall, these findings highlight the power of UCE-based genomic data in phylogenetic reconstructions and population genetic analyses to better resolve cryptic species diversity, and clarify complex evolutionary histories shaped by introgression and incomplete lineage sorting.

Understanding evolutionary relationships in hyperdiverse plant groups remains a major challenge in systematics. The orchid genus Bulbophyllum, the second largest genus of flowering plants, represents an exceptional example of phylogenetic and morphological complexity. Relationships, particularly within the species-rich Asian clade, have remained poorly resolved due to extensive morphological variation and limited resolution in previous phylogenetic studies. Here, we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships using 63 plastid genes from 355 specimens representing 322 species and 65 of the 97 recognised sections of Bulbophyllum. Our analyses confirmed that the genus comprises five major evolutionary lineages comprised of species predominantly from Australasia, Madagascar, Continental Africa, Neotropics, and Asia. We provide the first robust phylogenetic evidence for a dichotomous split within the Asian clade into two well-supported lineages: the Asian-Malesian clade and the Malesian-Papuasian clade, with the latter containing a strongly supported Papuasian subclade. Additionally, this study supports the monophyly of several currently recognised sections while clarifying relationships in previously problematic groups. This study provides the most comprehensive plastid-based phylogenomic framework for Bulbophyllum to date and establishes a foundation for future taxonomic revision and integrative analyses of diversification and trait evolution within this hyperdiverse genus.

Forest trees pose numerous potential challenges to phylogenomic inference. Their large effective population sizes and relatively long generation times lead to deep allele coalescence and consequently incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), which biases inferences of divergence times toward older ages and introduces gene tree discordance. Deep phylogenetic divergences, reaching back into the Paleocene, introduce reference-mapping biases. Introgression--the movement of genes between lineages--may result in different phylogenies being inferred depending on which individuals are included in analysis, even if the plurality of the genome favors the divergence history unaffected by introgression. These factors influence phylogenetic inference across the Tree of Life but are particularly prevalent in forest trees. Oaks (Quercus) are notable for all three influences. In addition, our knowledge of the oak phylogeny is currently based strongly on restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) datasets published over the past decade, which may introduce additional sources of uncertainty. In this chapter, we analyze a 322-species RADseq dataset and genome resequencing data from across the genus to address sources of uncertainty in our understanding of the global oak phylogeny, which we hope will serve as a model for other research groups working on comparable woody plant groups.

Understanding the phylogenetic relationships among eukaryotic lineages is essential for tracing the evolution of key phenotypic traits and inferring the nature of the Last Eukaryotic Common Ancestor. While phylogenomic analyses have clustered eukaryotic taxa into several well-supported major supergroups, the relationships among them remain largely uncertain. Phylogenetic signal erosion over deep time and limited available taxon sampling are among the possible causes. However, most previous studies rely on variations of the same core protein dataset, hence containing the same potential systematic biases. Here, we reconstructed the eukaryotic Tree of Life using a largely independent, marker-rich dataset derived from highly conserved Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs. Unlike previous collections, our 277-marker supermatrix minimizes ribosomal protein representation and shares less than 25% overlap with previous datasets. State-of-the-art analyses of this dataset confirm most eukaryotic supergroups previously observed, but suggest different positions for some lineages. Notably, Telonemia clusters with Haptophyta rather than SAR (Stramenopiles-Alveolata-Rhizaria), and Ancyromonadida and Malawimonadida form a monophyletic group at the base of the Opimoda. Our results highlight the importance of analyzing independent phylogenomic datasets and support the hypothesis that extant eukaryotic diversity encompasses a small number of high-rank, supergroup lineages.

The order Atheriniformes (silversides, rainbowfishes, and blue-eyes) is a globally distributed group of fishes with frequent evolutionary transitions between marine and freshwater ecosystems. However, understanding the tempo and mode of these transitions has been hampered by poor phylogenetic resolution and limited taxonomic sampling, particularly within the suborder Atherinoidei. We generated a phylogenomic dataset of 1,100 exon loci for 150 species to resolve interfamilial relationships and reconstruct the groups biogeographic history. We were also able to incorporate a large number of existing GenBank sequences, producing a phylogeny with 265 species sampled for at least some genetic data (67% of known species diversity). While the New World suborder Atherinopsidae is well-resolved, we found that the family Atherinidae is polyphyletic across all analyses. We propose a revised classification that restricts Atherinidae to the genus Atherina and recognizes Atherinomoridae and Craterocephalidae as separate families. Our biogeographic inferences using explicit geographic areas suggests more frequent marine-to-freshwater transitions than previously inferred with simplified binary (marine vs. freshwater) coding, and uncover habitat transitions where marine ancestors may have gone extinct. These results highlight how explicit geographic modeling can uncover marine ancestry erased by extinction, providing a robust phylogenetic framework for future evolutionary studies of Atheriniformes.

Ancestral state reconstruction is a classical problem of broad relevance in phylogenetics. Likelihood-based methods for reconstructing ancestral states under discrete character models, such as Markov models, have proven extremely useful, but only work so long as the assumed model yields a tractable likelihood function. Unfortunately, extending a simple but tractable phylogenetic model to possess new, but biologically realistic, properties often results in an intractable likelihood, preventing its use in standard modeling tasks, including ancestral state reconstruction. The rapid advancement of deep learning offers a potential alternative to likelihood-based inference of ancestral states, particularly for models with intractable likelihoods. In this study, we modify the phylogenetic deep learning software O_SCPLOWPHYDDLEC_SCPLOW to conduct ancestral state reconstruction. We evaluate O_SCPLOWPHYDDLEC_SCPLOWs performance under various methodological and modeling conditions, while comparing to Bayesian inference when possible. For simple models and small trees, its performance resembles the performance of Bayesian inference, but worsens as tree size increases. While O_SCPLOWPHYDDLEC_SCPLOW still performs adequately for more complex models, such as speciation and extinction models, the estimates differ more from Bayesian inference in comparison with simpler models. Lastly, we use O_SCPLOWPHYDDLEC_SCPLOW to infer ancestral states for two empirical datasets, one of the ancestral ranges of a subclade of the genus Liolaemus and ancestral locations for sequences from the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola virus disease outbreak.

Partitioned and mixture models are widely employed in Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses of large genomic datasets. Comparing the fit of the two types of models has been challenging, because standard information-theoretic approaches cannot be applied. Mixture models are increasingly popular for the analysis of amino acid datasets and can lead to different conclusions compared to partitioned models. This raises an important question - which type of model tends to perform better? Susko et al. (2026) recently introduced the marginal Akaike information criterion (mAIC), which allows mixture models and partitioned models to be directly compared for the first time. Here, we use the mAIC and a range of other approaches to compare the fit of mixture and partitioned models across a diverse set of empirical datasets. We show that mixture models are universally favoured on amino acid datasets. This has important implications for interpreting empirical analyses and suggests that continued development of mixture models is an important avenue for future research.

Target enrichment methods have provided unprecedented advances in phylogenomics. Targeting hundreds of conserved regions has proven to be a good tradeoff between cost and efficiency, while being useful for museomics and diversified non-model clades. Unfortunately, current methods used for identifying such regions involve high degrees of conservation within targeted elements, usually pushing researchers to rely on flanking data with little guarantee for homology. With a growing number of high quality genomes available throughout the Tree of Life emerges new opportunities to improve marker selection. In this study, we introduce GABBI, a new method for designing target capture probes by taking advantage of genome alignments, avoiding the selection of a single reference genome that can cause notable biases. We compare GABBI-derived markers to the most commonly used probe design method, PHYLUCE, at two taxonomic scales, the weevil superfamily Curculionoidea and the tribe Pachyrhynchini. At both taxonomic scales, results show that our new method allows identifying more variable loci that prove to be more phylogenetically resolutive than the PHYLUCE-derived ones. Doing so, we provide the first probe set specifically designed for weevils, targeting a wide set of 4,255 shared homologous regions, encouraging future research on systematics and macroevolution of one of the most diverse and economically important groups of insects. By providing GABBI as an automated and open-access pipeline, we hope to open new probe design opportunities to other taxonomic groups that face similar phylogenetic obstacles.

BackgroundAlpha satellites, a superfamily of AT-rich tandem repeats, are the primary DNA component of centromeres in Platyrrhini and Catarrhini. Analyses of the human genome suggest that centromeres behave like biological ridges, with new alpha satellite families expanding at the centromere core, splitting and displacing older ones towards the pericentromeres. The Cercopithecini tribe, which displays an unusual chromosomal evolution involving multiple chromosomal fissions and centromere formations, represents a promising model to enhance our understanding of alpha satellite DNA evolutionary history. We previously applied targeted sequencing to centromere DNA from two distant species drawn from the Cercopithecini terrestrial and arboreal lineages, and characterized six alpha satellite families exhibiting varying mean sequence identities. MethodsCombining classical and molecular cytogenetics, we mapped the chromosomal distribution of these alpha satellite families across 13 Cercopithecini, one Papionini, and one Colobinae species. A nuclear marker-based phylogeny provided an evolutionary framework for interpretation. ResultsOur phylogeny identifies the terrestrial and arboreal lineages, and a newly designated swamp clade. We observed significant interspecies variations in alpha satellite patterns, including differences in presence/absence and distinct chromosomal distribution patterns (centromeric, pericentromeric, or subtelomeric). Families previously described as heterogeneous (83-87% mean sequence identity) exhibit a centromeric position in the swamp lineage, which is characterized by conserved karyotypes. In contrast, these families show a pericentromeric distribution in the terrestrial and arboreal lineages, replaced at the centromere core by more homogeneous families (95-98% mean sequence identity). In the arboreal clade, which is characterized by highly fissioned karyotypes, putative evolutionary new centromeres show a unique co-occurrence of highly homogeneous and heterogeneous families. Conclusion & ImplicationsWe propose a comprehensive evolutionary scenario for alpha satellite DNA in Cercopithecini, where younger families arise at the centromere core, shift toward the pericentromeres as they age, and eventually face extinction. Our study suggests that alpha satellite DNA and chromosomes evolve in an interdependent manner, with satellite diversification and displacement occurring in parallel with chromosome fissions and centromere repositioning. This comparative cytogenomic approach provides both support for the human-based evolutionary model for alpha satellite DNA and novel temporal insights into its diversification dynamics. Beyond evolutionary genomics, our findings highlight the potential of alpha satellite DNA to complement systematic studies in deciphering complex primate evolutionary histories.

Carnivorous plants have been the subject of fascination and research ever since Darwin codified the subject in his 1875 book Insectivorous Plants. The origin of complex trapping mechanisms from structures adapted for photosynthesis is of particular interest. While Darwin proposed a plausible scenario for the origin of the snap traps of the Venus flytrap from simpler adhesive traps, the origin of the tiny and complex bladder traps of the genus Utricularia mystified Darwin and many subsequent workers, despite Utricularia being the most diverse genus of carnivorous plants. In this study, we test the "pitcher hypothesis," which proposes that Utricularia bladder traps evolved gradually from an adhesive trap ancestor, via an extinct pitcher trap intermediate. To overcome the lack of any fossil evidence for this scenario, we constructed a variety of continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models, each of which consists of a transition matrix allowing or disallowing certain transitions between 11 types of traps. We assembled available phylogenetic trees for 436 carnivorous plant species and noncarnivorous outgroups, classified each species by trap type, and statistically compared the fit of 18 CTMC models using Maximum Likelihood and statistical model comparison with Akaike Information Criterion. The best-fitting model (PH-7R-AAI), consistent with our pitcher hypothesis, had an AIC weight of 60%, with two similar models accounting for the remaining 40%. These results support a circuitous stepwise evolutionary pathway to the bladder trap, and demonstrate how a detailed stepwise evolutionary scenario may be statistically tested even without direct fossil evidence of key intermediate stages.

Morphological trait datasets and phylogenies are routinely paired to investigate macroevolutionary patterns during disparity analyses. However, incomplete fossil sampling can distort disparity estimates, obscuring true evolutionary signals. Ancestral state estimation can be used for both continuous and discrete traits to extend these analyses beyond incomplete fossil data, such as investigations into disparity through time. However, when ancestral state estimation occurs in the disparity pipeline, and the inevitable uncertainty in these estimates, complicate their integration. Determining the most robust workflow for integrating ancestral state estimation in disparity analyses remains a critical methodological challenge. Using simulations to attain a ground-truth disparity value, we evaluated different approaches to performing ancestral state estimation and incorporating uncertainty across varying continuous and discrete trait models, fossil sampling densities and disparity metrics. Ancestral state estimation generally improved recovery of true disparity relative to tip-only analyses, though the optimal approach depended on the interaction between trait model and fossil sampling density. For continuous traits, probabilistic approaches were most accurate, but were sensitive to model misspecification under low fossil sampling density. For discrete traits, pre-ordination methods were most reliable and probabilistic approaches outperformed point estimates under low sampling, while point estimates became increasingly accurate as sampling density increased. Fossil sampling density was a stronger predictor of disparity accuracy than estimation method choice, underscoring that methodologies are only as powerful as the data provided. Our findings offer a practical decision framework for selecting the most appropriate workflow given the sampling density and trait characteristics of a dataset.

Phylogenetic network inference methods are increasingly used to detect hybridization and gene flow from genomic data, but their robustness to common sources of model violation remains poorly characterized. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effects of hidden paralogy and substitution rate variation on two widely used network inference methods: find_graphs from ADMIXTOOLS 2 and SNaQ. Using an eight-taxon species tree calibrated from an empirical reptile phylogeny, we simulated data under various levels of hidden paralogy (from none to strong) and three levels of rate variation (none, gene-specific, and lineage-specific). We found that hidden paralogy had limited impact on network inference under the conditions examined: both network methods correctly favored a tree without reticulation, and ASTRAL recovered the correct species tree every time. In contrast, lineage-specific rates severely biased find_graphs, inflating worst f-statistic residuals well beyond the standard acceptance threshold. SNaQ correctly selected a tree model almost always across all conditions, though its network with h = 1 reticulation displayed the true species tree with a lower probability under lineage-specific rates. We also show that the standard worst residuals threshold of 3 for find_graphs produces inflated type I error even without rate variation, and we recommend empirical calibration of this threshold within each study system.